Among the numerous vivid ideas in the excellent cover story, "Risk", from New York Times Magazine 04-Jan-09 ( http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html) was this one from Aaron Brown of Hedge Fund AQR:
...in crisis "you want to know who can kill you and whether or not they will and who you can kill if necessary. You need to have an emergency backup plan that assumes everyone is out to get you. In peacetime you think about other people's intentions. In wartime, only their capabilities matter. VaR is a peacetime statistic."
The article is in the context of, and focused on the VaR risk quantification system. But above that is a basic concept of competition for survival with parties who "in peacetime" may be peers or even allies, but whose "capabilities" to impact your own survival are ultimately important in crisis.
How far is that concept from how governments work across the globe? How far is that from how individuals work in the corporate office?
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Peace-time? What is this 'peace-time' that you speak of?
ReplyDeleteEnjoyed flipping through yer blog, man. My view on't: there's no such thing as peace or war, only different lenses. If you like to follow links around, read Lem's brilliant "Trap Of Gargantius" on the topic, here. It's worth your time - he's a genius of the first order and a lyricist so accomplished he even translates prettily.
Have a lovely day etc (and of course, if you like poetry, I'm here.
Later
PG